第2007期：27年前，巴菲特问了三个小问题，没几个人全答对

1997年，股神巴菲特在给全体股东的公开信中问了三个小问题，三道题都能答对的话，说明你投资股票的思路是对的，但没几个人都答对。

这封信全文网址 https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1997.html

*注：Berkshire Hathaway（伯克希尔·哈撒韦股份有限公司）就是巴菲特任CEO的投资公司（NYSE: BRK.A)。

下面是巴菲特问股东们的三个小问题。

How We Think About Market Fluctuations 如何看待市场波动

A short quiz: If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life and are not a cattle producer, should you wish for higher or lower prices for beef?

小测试：如果你打算一辈子都吃牛肉汉堡，但你不是养牛的，你希望牛肉价格高还是价格低？

Likewise, if you are going to buy a car from time to time but are not an auto manufacturer, should you prefer higher or lower car prices? These questions, of course, answer themselves.

同样，假设你经常需要买车，但你不是生产汽车的厂家，你希望汽车的价格高还是低？

这两个问题的答案不言自明。

But now for the final exam: If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period?

Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall.

In effect, they rejoice because prices have risen for the “hamburgers” they will soon be buying. This reaction makes no sense.

Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices.

但最后一个问题：如果你希望在未来五年内成为净投资者，你应该希望在此期间股市上涨还是下跌？

许多投资者在这个问题上都搞错了。尽管他们将在未来很多年内作股票的净买家（只买入，不卖出），但每次当股价上涨时，他们仍会兴高采烈，每次股价下跌时，他们就会感到沮丧。

实际上，他们在高兴的同时没有想到他们接下来要购买的“汉堡”已经涨价了。那么这种高兴就毫无意义（怎么能高兴呢？）。

只有那些在不久的将来打算卖出股票的人才应该对股票上涨感到高兴。潜在的买家应该更喜欢价格下跌。（佛老 译）

注意：巴菲特的投资理念推崇长期投资、价值投资，不主张频繁买进卖出。只有在这个投资理念框架中才能理解他这段话的意思。用大白话说就是——如果你打算做长线投资，每次股票下跌你都应该高兴，因为你可以低价“进货”了。（仅适用于正常股票市场，请读者明鉴。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。）